An international team of researchers led by scientists from the Institute of Ionosphere of NTU «KhPI» has identified a problem with atmospheric forecasting that can lead to the loss of spacecraft located in low Earth orbit. The results of the scientific work were published in one of the most influential publications in the world about the Earth and its shells – the journal of geophysical research Geophysical Research Letters (USA). The team of scientists from Kharkiv Polytechnic who joined the research included Dmytro Kotov, Director of the Institute of Ionosphere, PhD in Physics and Mathematics, Maryna Reznichenko, PhD in Philosophy, Oleksandr Bohomaz, PhD in Engineering, and Ihor Domnin, PhD in Engineering. They were joined by scientists from the University of Alabama at Huntsville (USA), the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA), the Space Research Center of the Polish Academy of Sciences, and the Radio Astronomy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
In February 2022, specialists of the company SpaceX and the entire space industry were shocked by the loss of 38 Starlink satellites at once. The satellites were in an intermediate low orbit (~200 km) and were supposed to be gradually raised several hundred kilometers higher, but instead lost control, de-orbit, and burned up in the atmosphere. SpaceX’s losses amounted to tens of millions of dollars.
«It was a complete surprise for everyone», says Dmytro Kotov, the leader of the research team, associate professor, PhD in Physics and Mathematics, director of the Research Institute of the Ionosphere at NTU «KhPI», «Nothing indicated the possibility of such a development, but it happened. It was the most massive loss of spacecraft in history». The huge financial losses and, most importantly, the need to prevent a similar catastrophe from happening again prompted the search for an answer to the main question: what happened? «Obviously, the answer had to be found as soon as possible,» says Dmytro. «It’s hard to remember another case like this, when most space physics experts put aside all their other activities and focus on a single problem. But this problem is really worth it».
Within a few years, dozens of studies appeared explaining the Starlink disaster by the influence of magnetic storms that were occurring at the same time. «The main problem with this conclusion is that those magnetic storms were very moderate», explains Dmytro. «They were no different from similar storms, of which there were thousands during the space age, and which never had such severe consequences. We immediately suspected that the cause of the disaster was something else».
Using ionospheric observation data obtained, among other things, with the help of the unique research equipment of the Ionospheric Observatory of the Research Institute of Ionosphere of NTU «KhPI», as well as mathematical modeling of near-Earth space, the scientists made two discoveries. «The first is that the atmosphere was already unusual even before the magnetic storms began,» says Dmytro Kotov, a researcher at Kharkiv Polytechnic, «It was noticeably thicker than predicted by the international model that experts use to calculate satellite deceleration in the atmosphere. That is, it may be that Starlink would have fallen out of orbit even without the impact of the storm. And the second discovery is that such situations, when the atmosphere is very poorly predicted, happen quite often. So, until the atmospheric model is improved, the recurrence of such disasters is quite likely».
According to Dmytro Kotov, we are now facing a renaissance in studying the atmosphere in calm conditions. «Over the past few decades, the focus of most researchers has shifted to studying extreme events in near-Earth space – powerful magnetic storms caused by strong solar flares and coronal mass ejections – and their effects on the atmosphere. This always arouses the curiosity of both scientists and people who are simply interested in the world around them, as well as the press. Spectacular auroras, the impact on critical infrastructure and living beings, new features every time – all this excites the imagination, it is fashionable. In contrast, the atmosphere in calm conditions, when storms do not occur, has come to be considered very well known, predictable, and therefore uninteresting. Our discovery demonstrates the fallacy of this attitude. The calm atmosphere can be unpredictable. And it can greatly surprise both scientists and owners of space companies and users of their services – and therefore each of us».
In addition to Dmytro Kotov, the team of researchers from the Institute of Ionosphere of NTU «KhPI» included: Doctor of Philosophy Maryna Reznichenko, Candidate of Technical Sciences Oleksandr Bohomaz and Professor Doctor of Technical Sciences Igor Domnin. Scientists from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (USA), the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA), the Space Research Center of the Polish Academy of Sciences (Poland), and the Radio Astronomy Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine joined the work.
Note:
Starlink is a project of the American company SpaceX to develop a high-performance satellite platform for manufacturing communication satellites and launching a large number of them (constellations) into space. The system provides access to broadband Internet anywhere in the world. The company was the first to serve Canada and the United States (2020).
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) is an international peer-reviewed scientific journal, the flagship publication of the American Geophysical Union, that publishes significant, high-impact research advances in the major disciplines of the Earth and its envelope. It contains original research on physical, chemical, and biological processes that contribute to the understanding of the Earth, Sun, and Solar System. Results accepted for publication must be innovative, at the forefront of one or more disciplines, and have a broad and immediate impact on those disciplines and on the research of other scientists. GRL is one of 16 scientific journals (along with Nature, Science, and Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America) included in the Nature Index as having a decisive impact on the development of Earth & environmental sciences.
Nature Index is an index established by the journal Nature that analyzes the global distribution of scientific publications in top-tier journals. The latest update of the Nature Index includes 145 such journals, which is only 0.5% of the journals indexed in Scopus.
The article was published:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112620
Geophysical Research Letters: Geophysical Research Letters – Wiley Online Library
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